OKC COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | RESEARCH
Warehouse Market Insights
Alex Booker, Senior Research Manager
Oklahoma City’s central location and low traffic but growing population have made it an attractive option for multinational logistics companies.
Warehouse occupancy has risen to almost 70% – a ten-year high!
Industrial site sale values remain relatively stable with 0.02% growth
A total of 839,057sf has been withdrawn from the Oklahoma City metropolitan market over the year to January 2018. Of which, 186,833sf across five secondary buildings has been demolished. 78% of buyers in the OKC area CBD over the next two years will be in the sub-15,000sf bracket.
Beyond 2020, expectations are for some moderation in price growth on the back of increased overall supply levels and a return of American manufacturing for premium products.
Where are industrial property values heading?
Warehouse and industrial-zoned values have increased significantly over the past 12 months. This was driven by strong rental growth, significant stock withdrawals, muted new short-term supply and positive tenant demand for logistics occupancy.
A lack of similar facilities throughout the state and into parts of north Texas are driving prices in the OKC outer area to decade highs. The average Warehouse sale rates (excluding car parking) currently measure $7,574sf with the upper end of the market pushing through $10,000-12,000sf. This represents an increase of circa 12.6% YoY. OKC Commercial Real Estate Research’s projection models indicate the strong value growth rates would be maintained over the next two years due to a number of favorable drivers.
The expected capital appreciation will be underpinned by strong manufacturing growth, limited supply and positive tenant demand in the sub-15,000sf warehouse category. Secondary gross effective rents in the the wider Oklahoma state region have increased by 21.0% on average over the 12 months to January 2018. This was due to a record level of stock withdrawals last year, which totalled 1,239,057sf. This was the highest withdrawal level since the PCA began tracking the market in 1990. Of this amount, 286,833sf across 17 secondary buildings was demolished last year to make way for residential. Looking ahead, a further 1,540,000sf is projected to be withdrawn from the OKC market over the next five years, due to a new metro rail system, residential conversions and redevelopments. This will continue to put tremendous pressure on effective rents and entice many tenants to opt for purchasing their offices, rather than renting, as a more cost-effective solution.
The significant withdrawal of secondary stock over the next few years is expected to result in a substantial number of displaced tenants. Knight Frank’s analysis reveals that the average floor size required by these tenants is 1,457sf. In addition, 78% of tenant expiries in the OKC area over the next two years will be in the sub-15,000sf bracket. This is in line with our research that shows 89% of OKC-based businesses are logistics companies with less than 100 employees. This will ensure a strong level of demand for warehouse locations in the outer OKC areas going forward.